Filed under: Daily Mortgage Interest Rate Update, Interest Rates, Mortgage Market News for the Week | Tags: Conventional Loan Rates, Credit Union Mortgage Division, cu mortgage, CU Mortgage Division Lacey Washington, First Mortgage Rate Lock Advice, Home Loans Olympia Washington, Interest Rates, Mortgage Loans Olympia Washington, William Tuning - Olympia
This week brings us the release of four relevant economic releases for the bond market to watch in addition to two relatively important Treasury auctions and a Fed conference. There is no relevant data or news scheduled for release tomorrow, so look for the stock markets to heavily influence bond trading and mortgage rates until we get to the factual economic reports.
July’s New Home Sales data is the first report of the week, coming late Tuesday morning. This report is the least important release of the week. It will give us another indication of housing sector strength and mortgage credit demand, but only tracks approximately 15% of all home sales. It usually doesn’t have a major impact on bond prices or mortgage rates unless it varies greatly from forecasts. Current forecasts are calling for little change between June’s and July’s sales of newly constructed homes.
The Commerce Department will post July’s Durable Goods Orders early Wednesday morning, giving us an important measure of manufacturing sector strength. This data tracks orders at U.S. factories for big-ticket items, or products that are expected to last three or more years. A much weaker reading than the expected 2.0% rise that is expected would indicate that the manufacturing sector is not as strong as thought. This would be good news for bonds, but this data is known to be quite volatile from month-to-month. Therefore, it will take a large variance from forecasts for this report to have a noticeable impact on Wednesday’s mortgage rates.
Friday is a multi-release day with the first revision to the 2nd Quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and the University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment both scheduled for release. The GDP is the total of all goods and services produced in the U.S. and is considered to be the best measurement of economic activity. This reading is the second of three that we see each quarter. Last month’s preliminary reading revealed that the economy grew at an annual rate of 1.3%. Friday’s revision is expected to show that the GDP actually rose only 1.1%. A larger than expected downward revision should help lower mortgage rates Friday, especially if the inflation portion of the release does not get revised higher. There will be a final revision issued next month, but it probably will have little impact on mortgage rates.
August’s revision to the University of Michigan’s Index of Consumer Sentiment is also due Friday morning. It helps us track consumer willingness to spend and is expected to show an upward revision from August’s preliminary reading of 54.9. If it revises lower, consumers were less confident about their personal financial situations than previously thought. This would be good news for the bond market and mortgage rates because waning confidence usually means that consumers are less likely to make large purchases in the near future. Analysts are forecasting a reading of 55.4, meaning surveyed consumers were more confident than previously thought. The lower the reading, the better the news for bonds and mortgage rates.
Also worth mentioning are a couple of Treasury auctions that may affect bond trading and mortgage rates this week along with a speaking engagement by Fed Chairman Bernanke. The two relevant Treasure auctions are Wednesday’s 5-year Note and Thursday’s 7-year Note sales. Results of the auctions will be posted at 1:00 PM ET each day. If investor interest is strong in the auctions, we can expect the broader bond market to rally and mortgage rates to move lower. However, lackluster demand could lead to bond selling and higher mortgage rates Wednesday and Thursday afternoons.
Mr. Bernanke will be speaking Friday morning at the Jackson Hole Fed conference in Wyoming. He will be addressing current and future economic conditions, so his words are likely to influence the markets and mortgage pricing Friday. What he will say and how it will impact the markets is difficult to predict, but I don’t believe we will hear anything that we haven’t recently heard. Still, there is always a possibility of the markets reacting heavily to his words so the event is worth watching.
Overall, we will likely see the most activity in rates Tuesday, but Wednesday and Friday are also fairly important. Stronger than expected results in the economic reports and disappointing results in the Treasury sales will most likely lead to rates moving higher this week. Trading late last week hints that mortgage rates may have bottomed out for the time being. Accordingly, proceed cautiously if still floating an interest rate.
If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.
©Mortgage Commentary 2011
Filed under: Daily Mortgage Interest Rate Update, Mortgage Market News for the Week | Tags: Conventional Loan Rates, CU Mortgage Division Lacey Washington, CU Mortgage Division Olympia Washington Mortgage Lender, First Mortgage Rate Lock Advice, First Mortgage Rates, Home Loans Olympia Washington, Interest Rates, Mortgage Interest Rates, Mortgage Loans Olympia Washington, Tumwater Washington Mortgage Lender, William Tuning - Olympia
Monday’s bond market has opened flat despite early stock strength. The stock markets are starting the week off in positive ground with the Dow up 145 points and the Nasdaq up 29 points. The bond market is currently down 1/32, which should keep this morning’s mortgage rates very close to Friday’s levels.
There is no relevant data scheduled for release today, but the rest of the week brings us six reports that may influence mortgage rates. Only two of them are considered to be highly important, so the stock markets will likely play another active role in this week’s bond trading and mortgage pricing. With no relevant auctions or speeches on tap though, I suspect we will see much less movement in mortgage rates this week compared to the past couple of weeks. With the wild swings in the markets last week, a calmer week won’t be too difficult to accomplish. Although we will still likely see more movement in the major stock indexes and mortgage rates, just to a lesser degree.
Tomorrow has two reports scheduled for release. The first is July’s Housing Starts data that gives us an indication of housing sector strength and future mortgage credit demand. However, it isn’t considered to be of high importance to the bond market or mortgage pricing and usually doesn’t cause much movement in mortgage rates unless it varies greatly from forecasts. It is the least important of the week’s reports and is expected to show a decline in construction starts of new homes. The lower the number of starts, the better the news for the bond market, as it would indicate a weaker than expected housing sector.
July’s Industrial Production is tomorrow’s second report with a release time of 9:15 AM ET. It gives us a measurement of manufacturing sector strength by tracking output at U.S. factories, mines and utilities. It is considered to be moderately important to the markets and can influence mortgage rates slightly if it is a dead day for other news or events. Current forecasts are calling for a 0.4% increase in production, indicating some strength in the manufacturing sector. Good news for the bond market and mortgage rates would be a decline in output, signaling sector weakness.
Overall, look for Thursday to be the busiest day of the week with the Consumer Price Index being released, but Wednesday’s Producer Price Index can also cause plenty of movement in the markets and mortgage rates. Friday looks to be the lightest day. The rest of the week will likely be influenced by stock prices in addition to the moderately important economic data, which can be quite volatile as we have seen over the past couple weeks. Therefore, keep an eye on the markets and maintain contact with your mortgage professional if you have not locked an interest rate yet.
If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.
©Mortgage Commentary 2011
Filed under: Daily Mortgage Interest Rate Update, Interest Rates, Mortgage Market News for the Week | Tags: Conventional Loan Rates, Credit Union Mortgage Division, CU Mortgage Division, CU Mortgage Division Olympia Washington Mortgage Lender, First Mortgage Rate Lock Advice, Home Loans Olympia Washington, Interest Rates, Lacey Mortgage Lender, Olympia Home Loan Lender, Olympia Home Loan Rates, Olympia Washington Mortgage Rates, Tumwater Washington Mortgage Lender, Washington, William Tuning - Olympia
No Change From Fed Investors focused on the Fed meeting and Greece this week. A reduced growth forecast from the Fed and continued concerns about the situation in Greece helped mortgage rates move a little lower. As widely expected, the Fed made no change in the fed funds rate, and Fed policy appears unlikely to change in the near-term. The Fed lowered its forecast for 2011 GDP growth to 2.8%. This is down from 3.2% at the last meeting, but it does assume faster growth during the second half of the year. Inflation is expected to remain low. The Fed gave no indication that it will provide additional monetary stimulus any time soon. In short, it will likely take a major improvement or deterioration in the economic outlook for the Fed to take significant additional action. On Thursday, Greece reached a deal with European Union (EU) and International Monetary Fund (IMF) officials. Greece will receive additional aid from the EU and the IMF, but to get the aid it must further reduce government spending, and its ability to execute on the deal is in doubt. The question is whether the Greek government has the political will to pass new austerity measures. The answer could lead to further market volatility. If the opposition is too strong and the measures fail, the resulting uncertainty likely would lead to a global flight to safety, which would be good for mortgage rates. On the other hand, if the measures successfully pass, mortgage rates likely would move higher. |
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| Week Ahead
Next week, the Core PCE price index, the Fed’s preferred inflation indicator, will come out on Monday, along with Personal Income. Consumer Confidence is scheduled for Tuesday. Pending Home Sales, a leading indicator for the housing sector, will be released on Wednesday. The Chicago PMI manufacturing index will come out on Thursday. There will be Treasury auctions on Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday. The Fed’s quantitative easing program is scheduled to conclude on Thursday. |
| All material Copyright © Ress No. 1, LTD and may not be reproduced without permission.
For all your home loan needs call CU Mortgage Division in Olympia, Washington at (360) 539-4687 or visit www.williamatuning.com . |
Filed under: Daily Mortgage Interest Rate Update, Interest Rates, Mortgage Market News for the Week | Tags: Credit Union Mortgage Division, cu mortgage, CU Mortgage Division Lacey Washington, CU Mortgage Division Olympia Washington Mortgage Lender, First Mortgage Rate Lock Advice, Home Loans Olympia Washington, Mortgage Loans Olympia Washington, Olympia Home Loan Lender, Olympia WA Interest Rates, Olympia Washington Mortgage Rates, Olympia Washington Real Estate Lender, The Mortgage Dude, Tumwater Mortgage Lender, Washington, William Tuning - Olympia
This week brings us the release of five important economic reports in addition to two Treasury auctions that may influence rates. Only two of the five reports are considered to be of fairly high importance to the bond market and mortgage pricing. The remaining reports are considered to be of moderate or low importance and will likely not heavily influence mortgage rates.
There is nothing of importance scheduled for release tomorrow, so expect the stock markets to influence bond trading and mortgage pricing. April’s New Home Sales data will be released late Tuesday morning. This report gives us a measurement of housing sector strength and future mortgage credit demand. However, it is actually the least important release of the week and probably will not have much of an impact on mortgage pricing because it tracks only approximately 15% of all home sales. It is expected to show little change in sales from March’s level, meaning the new home portion of the housing sector was flat last month.
Wednesday has one of the week’s more important reports scheduled with April’s Durable Goods Orders being posted. This data gives us an indication of manufacturing sector strength by tracking orders at U.S. factories for big-ticket products. It is currently expected to show a decline in new orders of approximately 2.0%, indicating manufacturing sector weakness. That would be good news for the bond market and mortgage rates, but this data is known to be quite volatile. Therefore, a small variance from forecasts would likely have little impact on mortgage rates Wednesday.
The first of two revisions to the 1st quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) will be released at 8:30 AM Thursday. The second revision to this report comes next month but isn’t expected to carry much importance. The GDP is the sum of all goods and services produced in the U.S. and is considered to be the best indicator of economic growth. Last month’s preliminary reading revealed a 1.8% increase in the annual rate of growth. Analysts expect a slight upward revision to this reading with the consensus being a 2.0% rate of growth. If the upward revision is much stronger than expected, we may see the bond market react negatively and mortgage rates move higher because it would mean the economy was stronger than thought last quarter.
April’s Personal Income and Outlays data is the first of two reports due Friday. It will be posted at 8:30 AM and gives us an indication of consumer ability to spend and current spending habits. An increase in income means that consumers have more money available to spend. Since consumer spending makes up two-thirds of the U.S. economy, this data can cause movement in the financial markets and mortgage rates. Current forecasts are showing a 0.4% increase in income and a 0.5% rise in spending. Weaker readings would be considered good news for bonds and mortgage rates.
The second report of the day and the last relevant data of the week will come from the University of Michigan who will update their Index of Consumer Sentiment for May. It is forecasted to show a small increase from this month’s preliminary reading of 72.4. A reading above 72.6 would be considered negative for bonds and mortgage pricing.
Overall, I think we have a fairly busy week ahead of us. The big report of the week is Wednesday’s Durable Goods Orders. If Thursday’s GDP revision varies greatly from forecasts, it can also lead to sizable changes in rates. There are also a couple of Treasury auctions that are worth noting. The 5-year Note sale is Wednesday and the 7-year Note auction will be held Thursday. Both may influence bond trading and possibly mortgage rates if they are met with an exceptional demand or if there is lackluster interest from investors.
The bond market will close early Friday afternoon ahead of next Monday’s Memorial Day holiday. With all this, there is a pretty good possibility of seeing mortgage rates change several times this week- especially if there is more volatility in the stock markets. Accordingly, please proceed extremely cautiously if still floating an interest rate.
If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.
©Mortgage Commentary 2011
Filed under: Daily Mortgage Interest Rate Update, Interest Rates, Mortgage Market News for the Week | Tags: Credit Union Mortgage Division, cu mortgage, CU Mortgage Division, CU Mortgage Division Olympia Washington, CU Mortgage Division Olympia Washington Mortgage Lender, First Mortgage Rate Lock Advice, Home Loans Olympia Washington, Interest Rates, Mortgage Loans Olympia Washington, Tumwater Mortgage Lender, Tumwater Washington Mortgage Lender, Washington, William Tuning - Olympia
Mortgage Rates Little Changed Weaker than expected economic data helped mortgage rates decline to the lowest levels of the year early in the week. On Wednesday, though, a reminder that the Fed will eventually sell its portfolio of mortgage-backed securities (MBS) helped to erase the improvement. These two influences offset each other, and mortgage rates ended the week nearly unchanged. The economic data released this week fell far short of investor expectations almost across the board. The most significant report, April Industrial Production, was unchanged from March, which was well below the consensus forecast. Manufacturing output was hurt by a shortage of parts from Japan due to the earthquakes. The Index of Leading Indicators declined for the first time since June 2010. The housing sector data also showed weakness as Existing Home Sales, Housing Starts, and Building Permits all declined in April. The FOMC minutes from the April 27 Fed meeting contained few surprises, but they highlighted the fact that the Fed’s eventual return to more normal monetary policy will include both asset sales and rate hikes. The minutes gave no indication of the timing of any Fed tightening. Longer term, officials believe that the Fed’s balance sheet should contain only Treasury securities, meaning that the Fed at some point will begin to sell its roughly $1 trillion portfolio of MBS. In order to disrupt the mortgage market as little as possible, officials said that the selling may be done over a period of many years, and any asset sales would be announced far in advance. |
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| Week Ahead
Next week, New Home Sales will be released on Tuesday. Durable Orders, an important indicator of economic growth, will come out on Wednesday. Revisions to first quarter GDP will be released on Thursday. Friday will be the biggest day with Core PCE inflation, Personal Income, Pending Home Sales, and Consumer Sentiment. In addition, there will be Treasury auctions on Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday. |
| All material Copyright © Ress No. 1, LTD and may not be reproduced without permission. |
Filed under: Daily Mortgage Interest Rate Update, Interest Rates, Mortgage Market News for the Week | Tags: Conventional Loan Rates, First Mortgage Rate Lock Advice, Home Loans Olympia Washington, Olympia Home Loan Lender, Olympia WA Interest Rates, Olympia Washington Mortgage Lender, Olympia Washington Mortgage Rates, The Mortgage Dude, Tumwater Washington Mortgage Lender, Washington, William Tuning - Olympia
Mortgage Rates Improve on Inflation DataOn target inflation data and strong demand for the longer-term Treasury auctions were favorable for mortgage rates this week. The other major economic reports contained few surprises. As a result, mortgage rates ended the week lower.In recent weeks, the primary influence for mortgage rates has shifted from global events in Japan and the Middle East to the outlook for inflation. Last week’s rate hikes in Europe and China to fight inflation raised concerns that the Federal Reserve was falling behind with its lack of tightening, and mortgage rates moved higher. This week’s tame inflation data eased those concerns, however, and mortgage rates improved. The March Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.5% from February, matching the consensus forecast, and was 2.7% higher than one year ago. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, increased at a low 1.2% annual rate, which was a little lower than expected. Rising commodity prices have focused attention on the distinction between overall inflation levels and core inflation levels. Core inflation excludes the volatile food and energy components, so it is often viewed as a better indicator of short-term inflation trends by economists and Fed officials. While consumers certainly struggle with higher gas prices, longer-term inflation trends generally are more influenced by other factors such as wages and housing costs, which recently have been increasing very slowly. In short, stronger than expected demand for commodities and violence in the Middle East have pushed energy prices significantly higher, but Fed officials forecast that this represents a temporary increase in overall inflation levels. Commodity prices are not expected to climb at this pace indefinitely. If food and energy prices stabilize, then the gap between overall and core inflation levels will likely shrink. |
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| Week AheadNext week will be shortened by a holiday and will be a light week for economic data. Housing Starts will be released on Tuesday. Existing Home Sales will come out on Wednesday. Philly Fed and Leading Indicators are scheduled for Thursday. Mortgage markets will close early on Thursday and will be closed on Friday in observance of Good Friday. |
Filed under: Daily Mortgage Interest Rate Update, Interest Rates, Mortgage Market News for the Week | Tags: Conventional Loan Rates, Credit Union Mortgage Division, First Mortgage Rate Lock Advice, Lacey WA Mortgage Lender, Olympia Home Loan Lender, Olympia WA Interest Rates, Olympia Washington Mortgage Lender, Olympia Washington Real Estate Lender, Tumwater Washington Mortgage Lender, Washington, William Tuning - Olympia
| Inflation Concerns Push Rates Higher With little other economic news, inflation concerns weighed on mortgage rates this week. Despite rising commodity prices, Fed officials appear to be in no rush to tighten monetary policy. Investors, worried about the risk of higher inflation, pushed mortgage rates a little higher. While the ECB (European Central Bank) and China raised rates this week to fight inflation, US Fed officials continued to downplay the risks. According to the Fed Minutes released this week and in recent statements, the majority of Fed officials maintain the view that higher commodity prices are unlikely to raise future inflation expectations. These officials expect the impact to be “transitory” and “muted”. To support the economic recovery, they believe that the Fed should move slowly in removing monetary stimulus. The more hawkish minority at the Fed is gaining support, however, and several Fed officials have suggested that the Fed may need to tighten monetary policy before the end of the year. In light of the Fed’s debate, investors will be closely watching next week’s important inflation reports. Even with higher energy prices, consumers continued to spend freely on other items last month. The March sales figures from about two dozen large retail chain stores released on Thursday were stronger than expected. Consumer spending accounts for about 70% of economic activity, so this data was encouraging news for the economy. |
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| Week Ahead
The most significant economic data next week will be the monthly inflation reports. The Producer Price Index (PPI) focuses on the increase in prices of “intermediate” goods used by companies to produce finished products and will come out on Thursday. The Consumer Price Index (CPI), the most closely watched monthly inflation report, will come out on Friday. CPI looks at the price change for those finished goods which are sold to consumers. In addition, Retail Sales will be released on Wednesday. Industrial Production, another important indicator of economic growth, is scheduled for Friday. Import Prices, the Trade Balance, Empire State, Consumer Sentiment, and the Fed’s Beige Book will round out a busy week. There will be Treasury auctions on Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday. Investors also will be watching to see if Congress reaches an agreement on the debt ceiling to avoid a shutdown. |
Filed under: Interest Rates, Mortgage Market News for the Week | Tags: Conventional Loan Rates, Credit Union Mortgage Division, CU Mortgage Division Olympia Washington Mortgage Lender, First Mortgage Rate Lock Advice, Home Loans Olympia Washington, Olympia Home Loan Lender, Olympia WA Mortgage Company, Olympia Washington Mortgage Rates, Olympia Washington Real Estate Lender, The Mortgage Dude, Washington, William Tuning - Olympia
| Treasury Will Sell MBS With no major developments in Japan or the Middle East and little economic data on the schedule, mortgage markets had one of their quietest weeks of the year. The only significant market moving news was an unexpected announcement from the Treasury on Monday, which pushed mortgage rates a little higher. For the rest of the week, mortgage rates barely changed. The Treasury announced on Monday that it will begin selling its remaining $142 billion in agency-guaranteed mortgage-backed securities (MBS) holdings. Beginning this month, the Treasury plans to sell up to $10 billion per month, as they wind down the emergency programs put in place in 2008 during the financial crisis. The expected increase in future supply pushed MBS prices lower. Mortgage rates, which are largely based on MBS prices, moved higher. The big question now is what the Federal Reserve plans to do with its larger $944 billion MBS portfolio. A similar announcement from the Fed would have a much larger negative effect on mortgage rates. The housing sector data released this week was weaker than expected. February Existing Home Sales fell 10% from January. The inventory of unsold existing homes rose to an 8.6-month supply from a 7.5-month supply in January. Distressed sales accounted for 39% of all sales. Median existing home prices dropped 5% to the lowest level since April 2002. February New Home Sales fell 17%. As a result of price declines and continued low mortgage rates, home affordability is at the most favorable level in years, according to data from both the NAR and the NAHB. |
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| Week Ahead
The biggest economic event next week will be the important Employment report on Friday. As usual, this data on the number of jobs, the Unemployment Rate, and wage inflation will be the most highly anticipated economic data of the month. Early estimates are for a gain of 170K jobs in March. Before the employment data, Pending Home Sales, Personal Income and the Core PCE price index will come out on Monday. Chicago PMI will come out on Thursday, and the ISM Manufacturing index will be released on Friday. Consumer Confidence, Factory Orders and Construction Spending will round out the schedule. There will be Treasury auctions on Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday. The FDIC is expected to release its proposed definition of a Qualified Residential Mortgage (QRM) next week as well. This announcement will begin to clarify which loans will be subject to risk retention. |
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All material Copyright © Ress No. 1, LTD and may not be reproduced without permission. |
Filed under: Daily Mortgage Interest Rate Update, Interest Rates, Mortgage Market News for the Week | Tags: Credit Union Mortgage Division, CU Mortgage Division Olympia Washington Mortgage Lender, Olympia Home Loan Rates, Olympia WA Interest Rates, Olympia Washington Mortgage Lender, Olympia Washington Real Estate Lender, The Mortgage Dude, Washington, William Tuning - Olympia
| Rates Lower on Global EventsWorld events overshadowed domestic news in driving mortgage rates this week. The disaster in Japan and the violence in the Middle East helped push mortgage rates a little lower. Stronger than expected US economic data had just a small impact.The current environment is rare in that unrelated events in different parts of the world are exerting such a strong influence on US mortgage rates. While global economic growth rates are always a significant factor, they generally shift at a gradual pace. What makes the disaster in Japan so unusual is that it produced a very abrupt decline in the economic outlook for Japan. Slower economic growth in Japan will likely contribute to slower US growth, which is favorable for mortgage rates. Uncertainty in the Middle East is also favorable for mortgage rates, as it leads to higher oil prices which slow economic growth. Changing conditions in the Middle East pushed rates in both directions during the week as violence increased in Bahrain, but may be diminishing in Libya. A week with a packed economic calendar and a Fed meeting was pushed to the background by the news from other countries. This week’s generally stronger than expected economic data might otherwise have caused mortgage rates to move higher. Rising food and energy prices produced higher than expected inflation readings in February. Core CPI inflation, which excludes food and energy, rose just 1.1% from one year ago, but it has been moving higher in recent months. The Fed statement contained no surprises and produced little reaction. |
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| Week Ahead Next week, Existing Home Sales will be released on Monday, and New Home Sales will come out on Wednesday. Durable Orders, an important indicator of economic growth, will be released on Thursday. The final revisions to fourth quarter 2010 GDP will come out on Friday, along with Consumer Sentiment. |
